The third quarter began on an upswing. Covid-19 was in the rear-view mirror – or so it seemed. Growth was accelerating. Expectations were high for a “normal” return to work and school in the fall. Financial markets continued to rise to new records.
The picture changed sharply during the quarter – as the ravages and uncertainties of Covid-19 continued to bedevil the global economy. By the quarter’s end, economic indicators showed a mostly flat summer – supply chain disruptions and labor shortages hampered production. In China, growth slumped to just 0.2 percent from Q2 (4.9 percent on a one-year earlier) with power shortages and a property slowdown adding to Covid woes. Health concerns across the globe led to a pullback in travel and other services and in the US probably contributed to disappointing jobs numbers. Payrolls rose by only 194,000 in September, after 366,000 in August. Both fell far short of the million plus increase recorded in July. But inflation stayed persistently high. Consumer price increases hovered between 5.2 and 5.4 percent year-on-year through the third quarter, a 13 year high. As whispers of stagflation grew louder, equity markets slipped across the globe. After stocks hit new peaks in July and August, September followed with the first negative month since January.
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April 25, 2023
The long-awaited recession has not yet arrived. The first quarter of 2023 brought evidence that a global slowdown is indeed approaching. But it also showed that there is a way to go before central banks can declare victory in their fight against inflation, and pivot to easier money. Despite these headwinds, investors in equity and bond markets had a good first quarter.
January 20, 2023
The fourth quarter of 2022 was a microcosm of the year for investors, albeit not so painful. For 2022 as a whole, the tally was grim. US bonds experienced their worst year on record. Global equities fell sharply. Returns from a traditional 60:40 portfolio of stocks and bonds were the worst since 2008.There remains a disconnect between market expectations that rates will ease sooner rather than later and the central bank’s hawkish Q4 projections.
November 23, 2022
At COP26 last year in Glasgow, we saw big pledges – Net-Zero pledges from countries and companies; $130 trillion of private capital represented in the GFANZ coalition pledged to accelerate the de-carbonization of the economy. But that world, one of easily available capital and peace in Europe, no longer exists, and we have seen a resetting of expectations from many of the major players, both on the public and private side.