Afsaneh Beschloss at CNBC’s Delivering Alpha
September 29, 2022
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Learn More - Newsletter // Is Timing Always Everything? // Read Now
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- Research // Quarterly Letter-Q4 2022: Let’s Turn the Page // Read Now
LATEST INSIGHTS //
Some (Don’t) Like It Hot
What’s up with this economy? Just as hopes were rising of a soft landing – with inflation declining as the economy gently cools – Friday’s jobs data showed the labor market is still very hot. Markets did not like the news, anticipating higher interest rates for longer than had previously been priced in. The reset of expectations may please monetary policymakers. All three major central banks raised their policy rates this week, and all three promised further hikes to come.
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Real life may not be quite as confusing as in the Oscar-nominated movie. But the fiction of a parallel universe – or several – would help explain wildly differing views of the global economy for 2023. The bottom line: deciphering the post-pandemic economy is tricky. Pity the Federal Reserve, which must navigate the opposing risks of recession and inflation this year.
Quarterly Letter-Q4 2022: Let’s Turn the Page
The fourth quarter of 2022 was a microcosm of the year for investors, albeit not so painful. For 2022 as a whole, the tally was grim. US bonds experienced their worst year on record. Global equities fell sharply. Returns from a traditional 60:40 portfolio of stocks and bonds were the worst since 2008.There remains a disconnect between market expectations that rates will ease sooner rather than later and the central bank’s hawkish Q4 projections.
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Insights from RockCreek
Newsletter
Some (Don’t) Like It Hot
February 04, 2023
What’s up with this economy? Just as hopes were rising of a soft landing – with inflation declining as the economy gently cools – Friday’s jobs data showed the labor market is still very hot. Markets did not like the news, anticipating higher interest rates for longer than had previously been priced in. The reset of expectations may please monetary policymakers. All three major central banks raised their policy rates this week, and all three promised further hikes to come.
Learn More
Newsletter
Everything Everywhere All at Once
January 27, 2023
Real life may not be quite as confusing as in the Oscar-nominated movie. But the fiction of a parallel universe – or several – would help explain wildly differing views of the global economy for 2023. The bottom line: deciphering the post-pandemic economy is tricky. Pity the Federal Reserve, which must navigate the opposing risks of recession and inflation this year.
Learn More