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Quarterly Letter – Q3 2025: Split Screen
In Q3, it became clear that the US economy was slowing. Labor market signals pointed to a weakening in private sector jobs. The Federal Reserve decided to restart its easing cycle, delivering a 25 basis point rate cut in September even as inflation stayed above the 2% target. Adding to uncertainty, domestic political discord led the US government to shut down as the quarter ended, at midnight September 30.
RESEARCH // October 17, 2025

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