RockCreek Daily Market Update

GLOBAL MARKET SNAPSHOT 

Equity Markets: 
The equity market gave back some of the post-Fed gains today. There was some increased optimism ahead of the G20 meeting as Vice President Pence decided to postpone a speech the was likely to be critical of China’s human rights record. Geopolitical tensions increased overnight with President Trump approving military strikes on Iran to only cancel them at the last minute. Energy stocks (+0.8%) were the leaders following the move higher in oil prices, while small caps (-0.9%) were notable underperformers

Bond Markets: 
Despite dovish commentary from Fed members Bullard and Kashkari, Treasury yields moved higher for a second day in a row with the 10-year yield back to 2.05%. This now leaves the spread between 3-month and 10-year yields inverted by just 5 bps.

Currency Markets: 
The U.S. dollar index declined -0.4%. The greenback was weaker against most crosses G-10 crosses and mixed against emerging markets. Turkish lira (-0.9%) was notably weaker as Erdogan vowed to retaliate against U.S. sanctions. Putting further pressure on lira is this weekend’s elections - voters in Istanbul will return to the polls for a rerun of local elections. The prior election results were annulled after the ruling party’s candidate was narrowly defeated.

Commodity Markets: 
The Bloomberg Commodities Index declined -0.4% due to weakness in the grains complex. Oil moved higher (WTI +0.9%) after it was revealed overnight that the U.S. was minutes away from executing a retaliatory military strike in Iran before President Trump called it off because it was not “proportionate” to shooting down an unmanned drone. Gold (+0.4%) closed above $1,400 per ounce for the first time in six years. 

MACRO OVERVIEW

Following other manufacturing surveys earlier this week the U.S. Markit PMI dipped to a new multi-year low of 50.1 (compared to 50.5 last month).

 

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The information contained herein has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or to participate in any strategy. Nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the past or future performance.   This material represents the views of RockCreek.  This information should not be construed as investment advice. Some of the information may be provided to discuss general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market, or political conditions.  Information and opinions are as of the date of this material only and are subject to change without notice.  RockCreek has no obligation to provide any updates or changes to such information. The opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, and commentary contained in this material are based on information provided to RockCreek on both a formal and informal basis.  Further, any such opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, and commentary are made only as of the date of this material, are subject to change at any time without prior notice and cannot be guaranteed as accurate.

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