RockCreek News

Worlds Apart

In the US, Covid-19 concerns seem to be disappearing in the rear view mirror – the talk is of reopening, rehiring, recovery. Contrast that with Asia, where vaccination rates are low, Covid-19 fears have driven renewed lockdowns in countries from Japan to

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Throw Out the Models?

It is common practice to look at the past to help forecast the future. Economists do it. Market analysts do it. But right now, the first answer that many are giving to questions about prospects for the economy is: I

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The Expectations Game

Markets look ahead. So do economic forecasters. What the last two weeks have shown is how easily expectations can turn and how this affects reality, or at least the reality of pricing in financial markets. As April inflation data for

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Surprise, Surprise

Just as it seemed clear that the US labor market was gaining momentum, April jobs numbers came in far below expectations. Payrolls increased, but by much less than most analysts had expected. Importantly, the numbers for March were also revised

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Out of sync…

Major economies plunged into recession together a year ago. The path out is marked by divergence, not togetherness. There are two main reasons: Covid-19 and public policy. These will continue to be on investors’ minds.  Covid-19 comes first. We learned

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A Hundred Days of Change…

As President Biden closes in on his first 100 days in office, much has changed. The global economy is expanding rapidly. Vaccines are being rolled out. And markets have mostly been cheering, even as Covid-19 continues to lurk or even,

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